NEWSLETTER: INTELLIGENCE FUSION


Here’s your weekly rundown of the global security landscape, highlighting key incidents that have taken place from each region in the last seven days; 
Intelligence Insight Weekly - What's Happening in Asia?
MIDDLE EAST & ASIAPakistanOn 14th July, a bus carrying a group of Chinese nationals was destroyed following an explosion on a road in the Kohistan district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Nine Chinese nationals, two Pakistani military personnel, and one Pakistani civilian were killed in the incident. The cause of the explosion is not clear but is believed to have been caused by a roadside IED planted by an unidentified militant group. Pakistan hosts a number of militant groups in areas close to the Afghan border, with attacks targeting civilian and military assets being common. Whilst many groups in Pakistan oppose the influence of foreign companies in tribal areas, Baloch militant groups in particular have explicitly targeted Chinese personnel working on energy and infrastructure projects related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project (CPEC.) However, attacks carried out by Baloch groups are generally carried out within Balochistan itself, rather than in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, suggesting the involvement of another group in the 14th July attack. Initial reports have speculated that the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) group may be responsible, as the group is believed to be showing signs of a resurgence in Pakistan. The group has also shown willingness to target Chinese personnel, such as the April 2021 attack targeting the Serena Hotel in Quetta, allegedly aimed at targeting a Chinese Ambassador. 
Insight Weekly - Europe Image
EUROPEGermany, Netherlands and BelgiumThe current floods in Germany, Netherlands and Belgium have led to over 100 dead across these countries at the time of writing. During these floods, it has been noticed that environmental activists – predominantly Extinction Rebellion members and supporters – have begun to circulate rhetoric of the floods being an example of its ‘Climate Crisis’ or ‘Climate Emergency’ narratives. Extinction Rebellion often use their narratives to justify direct action protests against businesses – usually businesses in the energy, mining and the financial sectors – as well as government bodies to push for increased regulations and taxation. With these recent floods exacting such a high death toll in such a short period of time, it is possible that in the coming weeks Extinction Rebellion groups will use the current floods to call for and execute increased protests against energy, mining, and the financial firms across the continent. Businesses in the mining, energy, and financial sectors can anticipate protests outside their head offices and possible attempts to carry out direct actions such as vandalism or attempts to occupy offices.
Intelligence Insight Weekly - What's Happening in Africa?
AFRICASouth AfricaAt least 117 have died and more than 2,000 arrested following high levels of civil unrest in South Africa following the jailing of former president Jacob Zuma. Most cases of riots and looting were reported in the KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng provinces. Hundreds of shopping malls, factories and warehouses have been damaged or destroyed. Dozens of trucks were set alight on the key N3 highway that connects Johannesburg to Durban and a force majeure was also declared on the NATCOR freight line that connects that connects Durban to the Gauteng Province. Inter-communal tensions also increased, notably in northern Durban, with communities arming themselves to ward off looters. Although tensions remain high in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng provinces, the levels of civil unrest in both provinces have dropped since 14th July with the military sent in to support the police in volatile areas. Operations have also improved slightly at the ports of Durban and Richards Bay and clean-up and rebuilding campaigns are gaining momentum. With supply chains heavily impacted and both provinces facing shortages of critical supplies – potentially causing further violence – armed police convoys will transport critical aid to KwaZulu-Natal. The risk of violence spreading to Western Cape Province has been played down by Premier Alan Winde. Click here to read more on our blog about what’s driving the protests in South Africa.
Insight Weekly - North America Image
NORTH AMERICASan Antonio de los Baños, CubaProtests broke out in San Antonio de los Baños in western Cuba on 11th July and quickly spread to cities and towns nationwide. A sharp contraction in the economy due to the pandemic, along with increasing COVID-19 deaths and a shortage of basic foods, medicines, and goods sent thousands of anti-government protesters to the streets to call for an end to Communism. In response president Diaz-Canel, predictably blaming U.S. sanctions and counter-revolutionaries, called for supporters of the regime and security forces to retake the streets, leading to clashes in which at least one man was killed and several injured in Havana and the disappearance of around 160 protesters nationwide. The regime also shut down internet access and selectively crippled communication to prevent protesters organising through social media and sharing information with the outside world. In an attempt to quell the dissent, prime minister Manuel Marrero Cruz announced the temporary suspension of import duties on food and medicine brought in by travellers. Although a rare concession from the government, the move is regarded as far too little to make an impact on the problems facing Cuba. Whilst president Biden has voiced support for the protesters it remains unlikely that the U.S. will intervene or move to ease the sanctions reimposed by the Trump administration. Lacking any significant foreign aid and with no sign of the pandemic easing, further unrest in Cuba will likely be met with an increasingly repressive response from a Communist regime that lacks the ability to do otherwise.
Insight Weekly - South America Image
SOUTH AMERICAChileOn 9th July 2021, a group of Coordinadora Arauco-Malleco (CAM) gunmen opened fire on employees of Forestal Mininco and torched three of the company’s vehicles in Carahua, a commune located in the region of La Araucanía. Police officers responding to the incident shot and killed one of the attackers. Initial rumours suggested that the deceased attacker was the son of CAM leader Héctor Llaitul. However, Chilean authorities have since denied this claim and identified the victim as Pablo Marchant. The incident immediately sparked retaliatory attacks by Mapuche gunmen across the Chilean regions of La Araucanía, Bío Bío and Los Ríos. Trucks were torched to block highways, shots were fired at police and more forestry companies were attacked. Additionally, Mapuche supporters across Chile took to the streets to remember Pablo Marchant, including in the capital of Santiago.
 
📽🎙🖥️ THE INSIGHT: An Intelligence Fusion Video Series  A video series that takes a closer look at key incidents and events, providing you with wider analysis on security trends, evolving patterns and unexplored geopolitical themes from every corner of the globe.
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How will Brexit impact Northern Ireland? In the latest episode of The Insight video series, Scott MacDonald, our subject matter expert on Northern Ireland, and Regional Intelligence Analyst gives an overview of the true impact that Brexit will have on the country and its economy in light of recent backlash from new post-Brexit trading rules.
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